54% of economists expect AI's gains to reach the G20 within a decade, beyond US and China, while 32% warn Africa may lag (Financial Times)
| Source: Techmeme | Original article
A survey of 94 economists finds 54% expect AI-driven growth to spread across the G20 within a decade, while a third warn African nations may lag behind.
A Financial Times poll of 94 economists reveals a shifting view of where artificial‑intelligence‑driven growth will materialise. Just over half – 54 % – now expect the bulk of AI’s economic gains to diffuse across the entire G20 over the next ten years, rather than being confined to the United States and China. At the same time, a sizeable minority – 32 % of respondents – warn that African nations are likely to lag behind the rest of the bloc.
The findings matter because they challenge the narrative that AI benefits will be monopolised by the two biggest tech economies. If the majority of economists are right, policy makers in Europe, Japan, Canada and other G20 members will need to position their industries, education systems and regulatory frameworks to capture a share of the productivity surge. The concern about Africa underscores a growing awareness that the continent could miss out on the job‑creation, efficiency and export‑boosting effects that AI promises, widening existing development gaps.
What to watch next are the policy responses that will follow this outlook. Expect heightened debate in G20 summits over coordinated AI investment, standards and talent pipelines, as well as targeted development programmes aimed at preventing an African digital divide. Tracking how national budgets allocate AI research funding and how multinational firms expand AI services into emerging markets will indicate whether the optimism about a broadly shared AI boom translates into concrete action.
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